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Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom
FT
0 – 1
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
7/8/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Miejski w Pionkach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Radomiak Radom48%
×Draw21%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radomiak Radom
2.13
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.68

Radomiak Radom creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 7 away

creates per match

Radomiak Radom
1.82
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.00

allows per match

Radomiak Radom
1.35
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.43

finishing

Radomiak Radom+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radomiak Radom ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Radomiak Radom or draw
69%
Radomiak Radom or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
79%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
52%

Winning margin

Radomiak Radom wins by 2+
28%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Radomiak Radom 1+ goals
88%
Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
63%
Radomiak Radom 3+ goals
35%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
81%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
50%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Radomiak Radom (draw refunded)
61%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radomiak Radom at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radomiak Radom attack 1.82 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.13

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 2.00 + Radomiak Radom defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Radomiak Radom scores more
48%
level
21%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
31%

Radomiak Radom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Radomiak Radom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Radomiak Radom 0–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Zaglebie Sosnowiec beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Pionkach in Pionki.