Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1–1 Cracovia Krakow

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cracovia Krakow

9/30/2018

Ekstraklasa · Round 10Stadion Ludowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec36%

×Draw23%

Cracovia Krakow41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie SosnowiecExpected goals in this matchCracovia Krakow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.71

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.61

Cracovia Krakow

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 137 away

1.89

creates per match

1.08

2.33

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

1.89

Cracovia Krakow

1.08

allows per match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.33

Cracovia Krakow

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Cracovia Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Sosnowiec ↓

Cracovia Krakow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or draw

59%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec or Cracovia Krakow

77%

Draw or Cracovia Krakow

64%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

18%

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

80%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

48%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

22%

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals

82%

Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals

51%

Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

47%

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Sosnowiec at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

Cracovia Krakow away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.34 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 1.89 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.61

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.08 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

36%

level

23%

Cracovia Krakow scores more

41%

Cracovia Krakow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff