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Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow
CANC
09:30
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2/15/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cracovia Krakow53%
×Draw19%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cracovia Krakow
2.45
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.73

Cracovia Krakow creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Cracovia Krakow
2.07
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.17

allows per match

Cracovia Krakow
1.29
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.83

finishing

Cracovia Krakow+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Krakow ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Cracovia Krakow or draw
73%
Cracovia Krakow or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
81%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
47%

Winning margin

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+
33%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals
91%
Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals
70%
Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals
44%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
82%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
52%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)
66%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Krakow attack 2.07 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.45

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 2.17 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cracovia Krakow scores more
53%
level
19%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
27%

Cracovia Krakow at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cracovia Krakow host Zaglebie Sosnowiec

February 15, 2025: Cracovia Krakow take on Zaglebie Sosnowiec in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cracovia Krakow host Zaglebie Sosnowiec at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.