Cracovia Krakow 2–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Cracovia Krakow

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

3/9/2019

Ekstraklasa · Round 25Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Cracovia Krakow56%

×Draw24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cracovia KrakowExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

0.94

Cracovia Krakow

1.72

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.94

Cracovia Krakow creates 83% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 19 away

1.44

creates per match

0.79

1.09

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Cracovia Krakow

1.44

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.79

allows per match

Cracovia Krakow

1.09

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cracovia Krakow+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cracovia Krakow ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cracovia Krakow or draw

79%

Cracovia Krakow or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

76%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

44%

Winning margin

Cracovia Krakow wins by 2+

31%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cracovia Krakow 1+ goals

82%

Cracovia Krakow 2+ goals

51%

Cracovia Krakow 3+ goals

25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

61%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cracovia Krakow (draw refunded)

73%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cracovia Krakow at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.09 · 137 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cracovia Krakow attack 1.44 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.79 + Cracovia Krakow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cracovia Krakow scores more

56%

level

24%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

21%

Cracovia Krakow at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cracovia Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff