Zaglebie Lubin 1–1 Korona Kielce: Result & Stats

Zaglebie Lubin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Korona Kielce

K. Szmyt 12'

M. Trojak 90+3'

3/16/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 25Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin38%

×Draw27%

Korona Kielce35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zaglebie LubinExpected goals in this matchKorona Kielce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Zaglebie Lubin

1.31

Korona Kielce

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

1.15

creates per match

1.18

1.31

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.15

Korona Kielce

1.18

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin

1.31

Korona Kielce

1.47

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin-0.33scores less

Korona Kielce-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Korona Kielce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw

65%

Zaglebie Lubin or Korona Kielce

73%

Draw or Korona Kielce

62%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

17%

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

73%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

38%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

14%

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

71%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

36%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

52%

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.31 · 17 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.15 + Korona Kielce defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Korona Kielce attack 1.18 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

38%

level

27%

Korona Kielce scores more

35%

Zaglebie Lubin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

M. Trojak

Korona Kielce · D

8.0

Match Events

12'

K. Szmyt↳ M. Wdowiak

30'

Damian Dąbrowski

64'

D. Błanik← M. Godinho

64'

Pau Resta← K. Sotiriou

68'

D. Kurminowski← M. Wdowiak

74'

Pau Resta

77'

Pedro Nuno← M. Remacle

77'

E. Shikavka← Adrián Dalmau

89'

L. Fritzson← D. Dąbrowski

89'

M. Listkowski← K. Szmyt

90+2'

M. Reguła← T. Pieńko

90+3'

M. Trojak↳ D. Błanik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ZaglebieKorona

Overview

27%Possession73%

8Total Shots14

0.54Expected Goals (xG)1.72

7Corners8

16Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots14

2On Target4

4Off Target5

2Blocked5

5Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

27%Possession73%

199Total Passes561

106Accurate Passes472

53%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1