Korona Kielce 2–0 Zaglebie Lubin: Result & Stats

Korona Kielce

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Zaglebie Lubin

Adrián Dalmau 34'

Pau Resta 8'

9/15/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 8Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Korona Kielce46%

×Draw24%

Zaglebie Lubin30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona KielceExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Lubin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.30

Korona Kielce

1.65

Zaglebie Lubin

1.30

Korona Kielce creates 27% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

1.64

creates per match

1.14

1.46

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Korona Kielce

1.64

Zaglebie Lubin

1.14

allows per match

Korona Kielce

1.46

Zaglebie Lubin

1.66

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Korona Kielce-0.26scores less

Zaglebie Lubin-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Zaglebie Lubin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw

70%

Korona Kielce or Zaglebie Lubin

76%

Draw or Zaglebie Lubin

54%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

24%

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

81%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

49%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

23%

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals

73%

Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals

37%

Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

60%

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.46 · 16 matches

Zaglebie Lubin away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.64 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.65

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.14 + Korona Kielce defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Korona Kielce scores more

46%

level

24%

Zaglebie Lubin scores more

30%

Korona Kielce at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Pau Resta

Korona Kielce · D

8.3

Match Events

8'

Pau Resta↳ M. Pięczek

12'

27'

33'

34'

40'

46'

58'

62'

M. Fornalczyk← E. Shikavka

62'

S. Nagamatsu← Pedro Nuno

67'

H. Adamczyk← D. Dąbrowski

67'

D. Kurminowski← V. Sejk

72'

Hubert Zwozny

74'

D. Błanik← M. Remacle

74'

D. Trejo← Adrián Dalmau

82'

M. Dziewiatowski← M. Mróz

90+7'

W. Kamiński← Y. Hofmeister

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KoronaZaglebie

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots11

2.35Expected Goals (xG)1.23

7Corners5

13Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots11

5On Target4

2Off Target4

5Blocked3

10Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

342Total Passes457

270Accurate Passes383

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3