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Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce — Ekstraklasa 2018

Zaglebie Lubin
Zaglebie Lubin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
3/3/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 23Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Zaglebie Lubin41%
×Draw26%
Korona Kielce34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zaglebie Lubin
1.44
Korona Kielce
1.29

Zaglebie Lubin creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.23
Korona Kielce
1.24

allows per match

Zaglebie Lubin
1.33
Korona Kielce
1.64

finishing

Zaglebie Lubin-0.43scores less
Korona Kielce-0.36scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zaglebie Lubin ↓

Korona Kielce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zaglebie Lubin or draw
66%
Zaglebie Lubin or Korona Kielce
74%
Draw or Korona Kielce
59%

Winning margin

Zaglebie Lubin wins by 2+
19%
Korona Kielce wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zaglebie Lubin 1+ goals
76%
Zaglebie Lubin 2+ goals
42%
Zaglebie Lubin 3+ goals
18%
Korona Kielce 1+ goals
72%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
37%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zaglebie Lubin (draw refunded)
55%
Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zaglebie Lubin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Korona Kielce away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.64 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.23 + Korona Kielce defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.44

Korona Kielce attack 1.24 + Zaglebie Lubin defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zaglebie Lubin scores more
41%
level
26%
Korona Kielce scores more
34%

Zaglebie Lubin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zaglebie Lubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zaglebie Lubin vs Korona Kielce

Zaglebie Lubin beat Korona Kielce 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.