Zagłębie Lubin II 3–3 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Zagłębie Lubin II

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

J. Kolan 82'

A. Woźniak 76'

P. Kruszelnicki 73'

D. Świderski 38', 26'

J. Ciućka 6'

8/25/2024

II Liga - East · Round 6Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II42%

×Draw23%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zagłębie Lubin IIExpected goals in this matchRekord Bielsko-Biała

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.53

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.69

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.53

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 33 away

1.70

creates per match

1.61

1.45

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.70

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.61

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.45

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw

65%

Zagłębie Lubin II or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

77%

Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

58%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

21%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

82%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

50%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

24%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

78%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

45%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

54%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.70 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.61 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

42%

level

23%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

35%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

J. Ciućka

26'

D. Świderski

33'

J. Ryś← T. Nowak

35'

38'

D. Świderski

46'

J. Dorożko← K. Sochań

46'

P. Kruszelnicki← K. Szmyt

46'

P. Florek← K. Żerdka

51'

64'

F. Antkiewicz← B. Kłudka

64'

K. Kolanko← M. Reguła

65'

M. Bojdys← M. Klichowicz

65'

J. Kempny← M. Pańkowski

67'

73'

76'

82'

84'

88'

89'

90+4'

Zagłębie

Rekord

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: P. Sochacki

46'▲J. Dorożko←▼K. Sochań

46'▲P. Kruszelnicki←▼K. Szmyt

64'▲F. Antkiewicz←▼B. Kłudka

64'▲K. Kolanko←▼M. Reguła

Zagłębie Lubin II substitutes

DorożkoKruszelnickiAntkiewiczKolanko

Manager: D. Klacza

33'▲J. Ryś←▼T. Nowak

46'▲P. Florek←▼K. Żerdka

65'▲M. Bojdys←▼M. Klichowicz

65'▲J. Kempny←▼M. Pańkowski

84'▲M. Śliwka←▼J. Ciućka

Rekord Bielsko-Biała substitutes

RyśFlorekBojdysKempnyŚliwka

II Liga - East: Zagłębie Lubin II 3–3 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Zagłębie Lubin II and Rekord Bielsko-Biała drew 3-3 in II Liga - East on August 25, 2024.

Goals: J. Ciućka (6'), D. Świderski (26', 38'), P. Kruszelnicki (73'), A. Woźniak (76'), J. Kolan (82').

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.

Zagłębie Lubin II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Zagłębie Lubin II 3–3 Rekord Bielsko-Biała