Zagłębie Lubin II 1–2 Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Zagłębie Lubin II

FT

1 – 2

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

P. Kusztal 77'

S. Mucha 71'

S. Wroblewski 12'

8/8/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II47%

×Draw21%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zagłębie Lubin IIExpected goals in this matchRekord Bielsko-Biała

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.69

Zagłębie Lubin II

2.09

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.69

Zagłębie Lubin II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

2.71

creates per match

1.97

1.40

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

2.71

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.97

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.40

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Rekord Bielsko-Biała →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw

68%

Zagłębie Lubin II or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

79%

Draw or Rekord Bielsko-Biała

53%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

27%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

88%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

62%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

34%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

82%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

50%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

60%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.48 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 2.71 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.09

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 1.97 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

47%

level

21%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

32%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Wroblewski

71'

S. Mucha

77'

P. Kusztal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff