Rekord Bielsko-Biała 4–2 Zagłębie Lubin II

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

FT

4 – 2

Zagłębie Lubin II

J. Ciucka 66', 54', 22'

T. Nowak 3'

B. Czuban 73'

P. Kusztal 56'

5/29/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 34Stadion BTS Rekord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rekord Bielsko-Biała47%

×Draw23%

Zagłębie Lubin II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rekord Bielsko-BiałaExpected goals in this matchZagłębie Lubin II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.45

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.85

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.45

Rekord Bielsko-Biała creates 28% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

2.28

creates per match

1.76

1.14

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

2.28

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.76

allows per match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

1.14

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rekord Bielsko-Biała+0.00on par

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rekord Bielsko-Biała ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or draw

70%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała or Zagłębie Lubin II

77%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II

53%

Winning margin

Rekord Bielsko-Biała wins by 2+

26%

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1+ goals

84%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 2+ goals

55%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3+ goals

28%

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

77%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

42%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Rekord Bielsko-Biała (draw refunded)

61%

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rekord Bielsko-Biała attack 2.28 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.85

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.76 + Rekord Bielsko-Biała defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rekord Bielsko-Biała scores more

47%

level

23%

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

30%

Rekord Bielsko-Biała at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rekord Bielsko-Biała will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

T. Nowak

22'

J. Ciucka

54'

J. Ciucka

56'

P. Kusztal

66'

J. Ciucka

73'

B. Czuban

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff