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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Górnik Polkowice — II Liga - East 2019

Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
5/20/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 32Stadion Zagłębia Lubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Zagłębie Lubin II39%
×Draw25%
Górnik Polkowice36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.50
Górnik Polkowice
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 53 away

creates per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.70
Górnik Polkowice
1.40

allows per match

Zagłębie Lubin II
1.45
Górnik Polkowice
1.30

finishing

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zagłębie Lubin II ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zagłębie Lubin II or draw
64%
Zagłębie Lubin II or Górnik Polkowice
75%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
61%

Winning margin

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
19%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
78%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
44%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
19%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
76%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
41%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
52%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zagłębie Lubin II at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.70 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.50

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
39%
level
25%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
36%

Zagłębie Lubin II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zagłębie Lubin II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Zagłębie Lubin II 1–1 Górnik Polkowice

Zagłębie Lubin II and Górnik Polkowice drew 1-1 in II Liga - East on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin in Lubin.