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Górnik Polkowice vs Zagłębie Lubin II — II Liga - East 2019

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Zagłębie Lubin II
Zagłębie Lubin II
10/15/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 15Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Górnik Polkowice56%
×Draw22%
Zagłębie Lubin II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.99
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.18

Górnik Polkowice creates 69% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 52 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
2.00
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.21

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.15
Zagłębie Lubin II
1.98

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
78%
Górnik Polkowice or Zagłębie Lubin II
78%
Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II
44%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
33%
Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
86%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
59%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
32%
Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals
69%
Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals
33%
Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
71%
Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 2.00 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.99

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.21 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
56%
level
22%
Zagłębie Lubin II scores more
22%

Górnik Polkowice at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Górnik Polkowice 3–0 Zagłębie Lubin II

Górnik Polkowice beat Zagłębie Lubin II 3-0 in II Liga - East on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.