Górnik Polkowice 4–2 Zagłębie Lubin II

Górnik Polkowice

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Zagłębie Lubin II

1/13/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Górnik Polkowice45%

×Draw21%

Zagłębie Lubin II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchZagłębie Lubin II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.83

Górnik Polkowice

2.13

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.83

Górnik Polkowice creates 16% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

1.92

creates per match

1.83

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.92

Zagłębie Lubin II

1.83

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.83

Zagłębie Lubin II

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Zagłębie Lubin II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Zagłębie Lubin II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

66%

Górnik Polkowice or Zagłębie Lubin II

79%

Draw or Zagłębie Lubin II

55%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

26%

Zagłębie Lubin II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

88%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

63%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

35%

Zagłębie Lubin II 1+ goals

84%

Zagłębie Lubin II 2+ goals

54%

Zagłębie Lubin II 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

57%

Zagłębie Lubin II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

Zagłębie Lubin II away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.92 + Zagłębie Lubin II defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.13

Zagłębie Lubin II attack 1.83 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

45%

level

21%

Zagłębie Lubin II scores more

34%

Górnik Polkowice at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff