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Yxhult vs IFK Skövde — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Yxhult
Yxhult
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
IFK Skövde
IFK Skövde
Gustafsson 67'
Lyckman 60', 58', 40'
Skillermo 37'
Al Rahman 6' (pen)
5/18/2023Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 8Moabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Yxhult32%
×Draw23%
IFK Skövde45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yxhult
1.52
IFK Skövde
1.83

IFK Skövde creates 20% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 47 away

creates per match

Yxhult
1.45
IFK Skövde
1.89

allows per match

Yxhult
1.77
IFK Skövde
1.60

finishing

Yxhult+0.00on par
IFK Skövde+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yxhult ↓

IFK Skövde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Yxhult or draw
55%
Yxhult or IFK Skövde
77%
Draw or IFK Skövde
68%

Winning margin

Yxhult wins by 2+
15%
IFK Skövde wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Yxhult 1+ goals
78%
Yxhult 2+ goals
45%
Yxhult 3+ goals
20%
IFK Skövde 1+ goals
84%
IFK Skövde 2+ goals
54%
IFK Skövde 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Yxhult (draw refunded)
42%
IFK Skövde (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yxhult at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

IFK Skövde away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yxhult attack 1.45 + IFK Skövde defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

IFK Skövde attack 1.89 + Yxhult defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yxhult scores more
32%
level
23%
IFK Skövde scores more
45%

IFK Skövde at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "IFK Skövde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Al RahmanPenalty
37'
Skillermo
40'
Lyckman
58'
Lyckman
60'
Lyckman
67'
Gustafsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yxhult vs IFK Skövde

IFK Skövde beat Yxhult 5-1 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on May 18, 2023.

Goals: Al Rahman (6' pen), Skillermo (37'), Lyckman (40', 58', 60'), Gustafsson (67').

The match was played at Moabvallen in Kumla.