IFK Skövde 1–2 Yxhult: Result & Stats

IFK Skövde

FT

1 – 2

Yxhult

8/25/2021

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 15Södermalms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

IFK Skövde54%

×Draw21%

Yxhult26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK SkövdeExpected goals in this matchYxhult

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.45

IFK Skövde

2.16

Yxhult

1.45

IFK Skövde creates 49% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 40 away

2.23

creates per match

1.60

1.30

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

IFK Skövde

2.23

Yxhult

1.60

allows per match

IFK Skövde

1.30

Yxhult

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IFK Skövde+0.00on par

Yxhult+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Skövde ↓

Yxhult →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

IFK Skövde or draw

74%

IFK Skövde or Yxhult

79%

Draw or Yxhult

46%

Winning margin

IFK Skövde wins by 2+

32%

Yxhult wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

IFK Skövde 1+ goals

88%

IFK Skövde 2+ goals

63%

IFK Skövde 3+ goals

36%

Yxhult 1+ goals

77%

Yxhult 2+ goals

42%

Yxhult 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

IFK Skövde (draw refunded)

68%

Yxhult (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Skövde at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

Yxhult away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Skövde attack 2.23 + Yxhult defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.16

Yxhult attack 1.60 + IFK Skövde defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

IFK Skövde scores more

54%

level

21%

Yxhult scores more

26%

IFK Skövde at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "IFK Skövde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff