Yxhult 1–1 IFK Skövde: Result & Stats

Yxhult

FT

1 – 1

IFK Skövde

6/22/2021

Division 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 16Moabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Yxhult32%

×Draw23%

IFK Skövde45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YxhultExpected goals in this matchIFK Skövde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.83

Yxhult

1.52

IFK Skövde

1.83

IFK Skövde creates 20% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 47 away

1.45

creates per match

1.89

1.77

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Yxhult

1.45

IFK Skövde

1.89

allows per match

Yxhult

1.77

IFK Skövde

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yxhult+0.00on par

IFK Skövde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yxhult ↓

IFK Skövde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Yxhult or draw

55%

Yxhult or IFK Skövde

77%

Draw or IFK Skövde

68%

Winning margin

Yxhult wins by 2+

15%

IFK Skövde wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Yxhult 1+ goals

78%

Yxhult 2+ goals

45%

Yxhult 3+ goals

20%

IFK Skövde 1+ goals

84%

IFK Skövde 2+ goals

54%

IFK Skövde 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Yxhult (draw refunded)

42%

IFK Skövde (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yxhult at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

IFK Skövde away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.60 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yxhult attack 1.45 + IFK Skövde defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

IFK Skövde attack 1.89 + Yxhult defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yxhult scores more

32%

level

23%

IFK Skövde scores more

45%

IFK Skövde at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "IFK Skövde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff