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Youssoufia Berrechid vs Kawkab Marrakech — Botola 2 2025

Youssoufia Berrechid
Youssoufia Berrechid
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
1/5/2025Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 12Stade Municipal de Berrechid

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid43%
×Draw33%
Kawkab Marrakech24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.03
Kawkab Marrakech
0.70

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 47% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
1.07
Kawkab Marrakech
0.79

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid
0.60
Kawkab Marrakech
0.99

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par
Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw
76%
Youssoufia Berrechid or Kawkab Marrakech
67%
Draw or Kawkab Marrakech
57%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+
17%
Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals
64%
Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals
28%
Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals
9%
Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
50%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
16%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)
64%
Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 1.07 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.03

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.79 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more
43%
level
33%
Kawkab Marrakech scores more
24%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Youssoufia Berrechid vs Kawkab Marrakech

Youssoufia Berrechid and Kawkab Marrakech drew 1-1 in Botola 2 on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berrechid in Berrechid.