Kawkab Marrakech 4–1 Youssoufia Berrechid

Kawkab Marrakech

FT

4 – 1

Youssoufia Berrechid

5/13/2019

Botola Pro · Round 28Stade de Marrakech (Marrakech)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech50%

×Draw26%

Youssoufia Berrechid24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kawkab MarrakechExpected goals in this matchYoussoufia Berrechid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.97

Kawkab Marrakech

1.52

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.97

Kawkab Marrakech creates 57% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 75 away

1.32

creates per match

0.95

1.00

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech

1.32

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.95

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech

1.00

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Youssoufia Berrechid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw

76%

Kawkab Marrakech or Youssoufia Berrechid

74%

Draw or Youssoufia Berrechid

50%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

25%

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

78%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

45%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

20%

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

62%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

25%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

67%

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Youssoufia Berrechid away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.32 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.52

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.95 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

50%

level

26%

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

24%

Kawkab Marrakech at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff