Youssoufia Berrechid 2–0 Kawkab Marrakech

Youssoufia Berrechid

FT

2 – 0

Kawkab Marrakech

12/23/2018

Botola Pro · Round 13Stade Municipal de Berrechid (Berrechid)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Youssoufia Berrechid40%

×Draw31%

Kawkab Marrakech29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Youssoufia BerrechidExpected goals in this matchKawkab Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.88

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.09

Kawkab Marrakech

0.88

Youssoufia Berrechid creates 24% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 33 away

0.89

creates per match

0.73

1.03

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Youssoufia Berrechid

0.89

Kawkab Marrakech

0.73

allows per match

Youssoufia Berrechid

1.03

Kawkab Marrakech

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Youssoufia Berrechid+0.00on par

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Youssoufia Berrechid ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Youssoufia Berrechid or draw

71%

Youssoufia Berrechid or Kawkab Marrakech

69%

Draw or Kawkab Marrakech

60%

Winning margin

Youssoufia Berrechid wins by 2+

16%

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Youssoufia Berrechid 1+ goals

66%

Youssoufia Berrechid 2+ goals

30%

Youssoufia Berrechid 3+ goals

10%

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

59%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

22%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Youssoufia Berrechid (draw refunded)

58%

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Youssoufia Berrechid at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Youssoufia Berrechid attack 0.89 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.73 + Youssoufia Berrechid defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Youssoufia Berrechid scores more

40%

level

31%

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

29%

Youssoufia Berrechid at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Youssoufia Berrechid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff