Young Africans 3–1 Namungo: Result & Stats

Young Africans

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Namungo

A. Okello 85', 53'

D. Abuya 26'

H. Kabunda 40'

5/25/2026

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 25Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Young Africans68%

×Draw20%

Namungo12%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young AfricansExpected goals in this matchNamungo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.68

Young Africans

2.00

Namungo

0.68

Young Africans creates 194% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

2.71

creates per match

1.07

0.29

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Young Africans

2.71

Namungo

1.07

allows per match

Young Africans

0.29

Namungo

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par

Namungo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Namungo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw

88%

Young Africans or Namungo

80%

Draw or Namungo

32%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+

43%

Namungo wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals

86%

Young Africans 2+ goals

59%

Young Africans 3+ goals

32%

Namungo 1+ goals

49%

Namungo 2+ goals

15%

Namungo 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)

85%

Namungo (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Namungo away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.71 + Namungo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.00

Namungo attack 1.07 + Young Africans defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Young Africans scores more

68%

level

20%

Namungo scores more

12%

Young Africans at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

15'

22'

26'

40'

42'

46'

53'

55'

H. Manyanya← H. Kabunda

59'

K. Shomari← I. P. Mwenda

64'

P. Buswita← L. Kikoti

64'

C. Kipenye← J. Masawe

65'

H. Manyanya

72'

R. Mchelenga← F. Ngoye

73'

A. Kiswanya

83'

Depu← P. Dube

85'

A. Okello↳ K. Shomari

87'

Sureboy← A. Okello

Young

Namungo

18

6

14

60

5

50

24

▼

Masawe

12

Swalehe

29

▼

Ngoye

8

▼

Kikoti

17

⚽

▼

Kabunda

39

Diarra

21

Yao

33

▼

Mwenda

3

Mwamnyeto

4

Bacca

25

▼

Damaro

7

Nzengeli

38

⚽

Abuya

29

A

▼

Dube

27

A

Yahya

20

⚽2

▼

Okello

Manager: Valdemar Soares Goncalves Pedro

46'▲E. John←▼M. Damaro

59'▲K. Shomari←▼I. P. Mwenda

83'▲Depu←▼P. Dube

87'▲Sureboy←▼A. Okello

Young Africans substitutes

28Masalanga12Shomari36Assinki8Kouma18Sureboy22Khamis35Mohammed26John40Depu

55'▲H. Manyanya←▼H. Kabunda

64'▲P. Buswita←▼L. Kikoti

64'▲C. Kipenye←▼J. Masawe

72'▲R. Mchelenga←▼F. Ngoye

Namungo substitutes

43Malik2Ahmed4Amoah3Buswita69Kamoga7Manyanya10Kipenye19Makambo25Mchelenga