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Young Africans vs Namungo — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Namungo
Namungo
M. Nzengeli 74'
P. Dube 30'
S. Aziz Ki 27'
5/13/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 28KMC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Young Africans75%
×Draw17%
Namungo8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
2.15
Namungo
0.54

Young Africans creates 298% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.95
Namungo
0.81

allows per match

Young Africans
0.26
Namungo
1.35

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
Namungo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Namungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
92%
Young Africans or Namungo
83%
Draw or Namungo
25%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
50%
Namungo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
88%
Young Africans 2+ goals
63%
Young Africans 3+ goals
36%
Namungo 1+ goals
42%
Namungo 2+ goals
10%
Namungo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
90%
Namungo (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.95, concedes 0.26 · 19 matches

Namungo away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.95 + Namungo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 2.15

Namungo attack 0.81 + Young Africans defence 0.26 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Young Africans scores more
75%
level
17%
Namungo scores more
8%

Young Africans at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
S. Aziz Ki
30'
P. Dube↳ K. Shomari
74'
M. Nzengeli↳ I. P. Mwenda

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Africans vs Namungo

Young Africans beat Namungo 3-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on May 13, 2025.

Goals: S. Aziz Ki (27'), P. Dube (30'), M. Nzengeli (74').

The match was played at KMC Stadium in Dar es Salaam.