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Namungo vs Young Africans — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Namungo
Namungo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Young Africans
Young Africans
P. Zouzoua 70'
K. Musonda 56'
11/30/2024Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 13Majaliwa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Namungo24%
×Draw31%
Young Africans45%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Namungo
0.75
Young Africans
1.16

Young Africans creates 55% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

Namungo
1.00
Young Africans
1.36

allows per match

Namungo
0.96
Young Africans
0.50

finishing

Namungo+0.00on par
Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Namungo ↓

Young Africans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–117%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Namungo or draw
55%
Namungo or Young Africans
69%
Draw or Young Africans
76%

Winning margin

Namungo wins by 2+
7%
Young Africans wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Namungo 1+ goals
53%
Namungo 2+ goals
17%
Namungo 3+ goals
4%
Young Africans 1+ goals
69%
Young Africans 2+ goals
32%
Young Africans 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Namungo (draw refunded)
34%
Young Africans (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Namungo at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Namungo attack 1.00 + Young Africans defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Young Africans attack 1.36 + Namungo defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Namungo scores more
24%
level
31%
Young Africans scores more
45%

Young Africans at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
K. Musonda
70'
P. Zouzoua↳ C. Chama

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Namungo vs Young Africans

Young Africans beat Namungo 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on November 30, 2024.

Goals: K. Musonda (56'), P. Zouzoua (70').

The match was played at Majaliwa Stadium in Ruangwa.