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Young Africans vs Coastal Union — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Coastal Union
Coastal Union
P. Zouzoua 35'
4/7/2025Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 25Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Young Africans72%
×Draw19%
Coastal Union9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
2.00
Coastal Union
0.55

Young Africans creates 264% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 29 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.73
Coastal Union
0.72

allows per match

Young Africans
0.38
Coastal Union
1.28

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Coastal Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
91%
Young Africans or Coastal Union
81%
Draw or Coastal Union
28%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
46%
Coastal Union wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
86%
Young Africans 2+ goals
59%
Young Africans 3+ goals
32%
Coastal Union 1+ goals
42%
Coastal Union 2+ goals
11%
Coastal Union 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
89%
Coastal Union (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.38 · 26 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.28 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.73 + Coastal Union defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 2.00

Coastal Union attack 0.72 + Young Africans defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Young Africans scores more
72%
level
19%
Coastal Union scores more
9%

Young Africans at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
P. Zouzoua

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Africans vs Coastal Union

Young Africans beat Coastal Union 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 7, 2025.

Goals: P. Zouzoua (35').

The match was played at Azam Complex Stadium in Mbagala.