Young Africans 1–0 Coastal Union: Result & Stats

Young Africans

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Coastal Union

J. Guede Gnadou 76'

4/27/2024

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 24Azam Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Young Africans71%

×Draw19%

Coastal Union10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young AfricansExpected goals in this matchCoastal Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.59

Young Africans

2.04

Coastal Union

0.59

Young Africans creates 246% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 35 away

2.79

creates per match

0.80

0.38

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Young Africans

2.79

Coastal Union

0.80

allows per match

Young Africans

0.38

Coastal Union

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Coastal Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw

90%

Young Africans or Coastal Union

81%

Draw or Coastal Union

29%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+

46%

Coastal Union wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals

87%

Young Africans 2+ goals

60%

Young Africans 3+ goals

33%

Coastal Union 1+ goals

45%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

12%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)

88%

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.79, concedes 0.38 · 29 matches

Coastal Union away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.79 + Coastal Union defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.04

Coastal Union attack 0.80 + Young Africans defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Young Africans scores more

71%

level

19%

Coastal Union scores more

10%

Young Africans at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'

L. E. Lawi

76'

J. Guede Gnadou

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff