Coastal Union 0–1 Young Africans: Result & Stats

Coastal Union

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Young Africans

P. Dube 88'

12/7/2025

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 6Mkwakwani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Coastal Union19%

×Draw28%

Young Africans53%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coastal UnionExpected goals in this matchYoung Africans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.69

1.36

Coastal Union

0.69

Young Africans

1.36

Young Africans creates 97% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

0.96

creates per match

1.69

1.04

allows per match

0.42

creates per match

Coastal Union

0.96

Young Africans

1.69

allows per match

Coastal Union

1.04

Young Africans

0.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Coastal Union+0.00on par

Young Africans+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coastal Union ↓

Young Africans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–118%

0–212%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Coastal Union or draw

47%

Coastal Union or Young Africans

72%

Draw or Young Africans

81%

Winning margin

Coastal Union wins by 2+

5%

Young Africans wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Coastal Union 1+ goals

50%

Coastal Union 2+ goals

15%

Coastal Union 3+ goals

3%

Young Africans 1+ goals

74%

Young Africans 2+ goals

39%

Young Africans 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Coastal Union (draw refunded)

26%

Young Africans (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coastal Union at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.04 · 24 matches

Young Africans away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.42 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coastal Union attack 0.96 + Young Africans defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.69

Young Africans attack 1.69 + Coastal Union defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Coastal Union scores more

19%

level

28%

Young Africans scores more

53%

Young Africans at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

74'

77'

77'

88'

P. Dube↳ D. Abuya

90+1'

B. Conte← P. Dube

Coastal

Young

16

Mshary

12

Shomari

15

▼

Hussein

5

Job

36

Assinki

38

A

Abuya

11

▼

Ecua

7

Nzengeli

29

⚽

▼

Dube

19

▼

10

31

19

5

9

▼

14

16

17

26

42

63

66

74'▲K. Gradi←▼M. Maulid

Coastal Union substitutes

WilliamOruchumMakamboGradiRamadhaniManyamaMkongaKhleffinMwanzaAndrea

Manager: Valdemar Soares Goncalves Pedro

57'▲L. Kouma←▼M. Doumbia

77'▲C. Boka←▼M. Hussein

77'▲A. Boyeli←▼C. Ecua

90+1'▲B. Conte←▼P. Dube

Young Africans substitutes

AbubakarSureboyBokaMohammedConteKoumaChikolaOthmanBoyeli