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Yokohama FC vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
3/18/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 5NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Yokohama FC33%
×Draw27%
Kyoto Sanga40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.16
Kyoto Sanga
1.32

Kyoto Sanga creates 14% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 80 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.00
Kyoto Sanga
1.16

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.49
Kyoto Sanga
1.32

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
60%
Yokohama FC or Kyoto Sanga
73%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
67%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
13%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
69%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
32%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
11%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
73%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
38%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
45%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.32 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.00 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.16 + Yokohama FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
33%
level
27%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
40%

Kyoto Sanga at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yokohama FC vs Kyoto Sanga

Kyoto Sanga beat Yokohama FC 4-1 in J1 League on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium in Yokohama.