Kyoto Sanga 2–1 Yokohama FC: Result & Stats

Kyoto Sanga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Yokohama FC

4/25/2025

J1 League · Round 12Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kyoto Sanga50%

×Draw25%

Yokohama FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kyoto SangaExpected goals in this matchYokohama FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.02

Kyoto Sanga

1.55

Yokohama FC

1.02

Kyoto Sanga creates 52% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 72 away

1.25

creates per match

0.78

1.25

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.25

Yokohama FC

0.78

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga

1.25

Yokohama FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Yokohama FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw

75%

Kyoto Sanga or Yokohama FC

75%

Draw or Yokohama FC

50%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+

25%

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals

79%

Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals

46%

Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals

20%

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

64%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

27%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)

67%

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 79 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.25 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.55

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more

50%

level

25%

Yokohama FC scores more

25%

Kyoto Sanga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff