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Kyoto Sanga vs Yokohama FC — J2 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
10/19/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 37Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kyoto Sanga35%
×Draw28%
Yokohama FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.17
Yokohama FC
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 86 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.33
Yokohama FC
1.41

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.01
Yokohama FC
1.00

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
63%
Kyoto Sanga or Yokohama FC
72%
Draw or Yokohama FC
65%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
15%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
69%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
33%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
11%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
70%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
34%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
49%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
35%
level
28%
Yokohama FC scores more
37%

Yokohama FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kyoto Sanga 3–0 Yokohama FC

Kyoto Sanga beat Yokohama FC 3-0 in J2 League on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Kyōto Nishikyogoku Stadium (Kyōto (Kyoto)).