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Yokohama FC vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
2/22/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 2MNHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Yokohama FC35%
×Draw27%
Fagiano Okayama38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.23
Fagiano Okayama
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 24 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.00
Fagiano Okayama
1.08

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.49
Fagiano Okayama
1.46

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Fagiano Okayama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
62%
Yokohama FC or Fagiano Okayama
73%
Draw or Fagiano Okayama
65%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
15%
Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
71%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
35%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
13%
Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
72%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
37%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
48%
Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.00 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.08 + Yokohama FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
35%
level
27%
Fagiano Okayama scores more
38%

Fagiano Okayama at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Yokohama FC 1–0 Fagiano Okayama

Yokohama FC beat Fagiano Okayama 1-0 in J1 League on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at MNHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium in Yokohama.