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Fagiano Okayama vs Yokohama FC — J1 League 2018

Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
9/23/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 31City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fagiano Okayama50%
×Draw27%
Yokohama FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fagiano Okayama
1.43
Yokohama FC
0.87

Fagiano Okayama creates 64% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 72 away

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.00
Yokohama FC
0.78

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama
0.96
Yokohama FC
1.85

finishing

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw
77%
Fagiano Okayama or Yokohama FC
73%
Draw or Yokohama FC
50%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
25%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
76%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
42%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
17%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
58%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
22%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
69%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.00 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Fagiano Okayama defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more
50%
level
27%
Yokohama FC scores more
23%

Fagiano Okayama at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs Yokohama FC

Fagiano Okayama and Yokohama FC drew 0-0 in J1 League on September 23, 2025.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.