Yokohama FC 2–4 Fagiano Okayama: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Fagiano Okayama

10/27/2024

J2 League · Round 36NHK Spring Mitsuzawa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Yokohama FC45%

×Draw27%

Fagiano Okayama28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchFagiano Okayama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.02

Yokohama FC

1.38

Fagiano Okayama

1.02

Yokohama FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 146 away

1.68

creates per match

1.03

1.02

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.68

Fagiano Okayama

1.03

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.02

Fagiano Okayama

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Fagiano Okayama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

72%

Yokohama FC or Fagiano Okayama

73%

Draw or Fagiano Okayama

55%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

21%

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

75%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

40%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

16%

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

64%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

27%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

62%

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.03 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

45%

level

27%

Fagiano Okayama scores more

28%

Yokohama FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff