Yeni Malatyaspor 0–1 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Yeni Malatyaspor

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Erzurumspor FK

E. Tozlu 58'

10/9/2022

1. Lig · Round 8Yeni Malatya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Yeni Malatyaspor15%

×Draw21%

Erzurumspor FK64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeni MalatyasporExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

2.00

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.86

Erzurumspor FK

2.00

Erzurumspor FK creates 133% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 109 away

0.67

creates per match

1.15

2.85

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

0.67

Erzurumspor FK

1.15

allows per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

2.85

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Malatyaspor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Yeni Malatyaspor or draw

36%

Yeni Malatyaspor or Erzurumspor FK

79%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

85%

Winning margin

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

5%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

58%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

21%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

6%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

86%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

59%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

19%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Malatyaspor at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.85 · 33 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.67 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.86

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.15 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

15%

level

21%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

64%

Erzurumspor FK at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

53

O. Ovacıklı

Erzurumspor FK · D

7.7

Match Events

34'

Mustafa Akbaş

58'

E. Tozlu

59'

Y. Alkan← A. Malle

59'

M. Altıntaş← J. Nshimirimana

66'

66'

68'

68'

78'

80'

83'

85'

B. Artarslan← A. Olanare

85'

C. Hanalp← O. Ovacıklı

90+5'

M. Rosheuvel← E. Tozlu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

YeniErzurumspor

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots8

3Corners1

18Fouls20

Shots

9Total Shots8

1On Target4

5Off Target4

3Blocked0

3Inside Box3

6Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

402Total Passes389

310Accurate Passes294

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls20

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1