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Erzurumspor FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor — League #203 2026

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
G. Obertan 90+6'
4/21/2021League #203League #203 · Round 36Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Erzurumspor FK42%
×Draw30%
Yeni Malatyaspor27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
1.14
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.86

Erzurumspor FK creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
0.60
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.33

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.40
Yeni Malatyaspor
1.67

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
73%
Erzurumspor FK or Yeni Malatyaspor
70%
Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor
58%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
18%
Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
68%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
32%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
11%
Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
58%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
21%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
60%
Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 0.60 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.33 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
42%
level
30%
Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
27%

Erzurumspor FK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
J. SzumskiErzurumspor FKErzurumspor FK · G
7.9

Match Events

48'
Ricardo Gomes
61'
E. Rashani← C. Alkılıç
62'
M. Eskihellaç← U. Bulut
68'
O. Karakullukçu← Ricardo Gomes
69'
S. Mallan← Z. Yavru
77'
Karim Hafez
77'
B. Cevahir← S. Kaya
78'
R. Çağıran← P. Boumal
78'
J. Topalli← K. Kanatsızkuş
90'
Elbasan RashaniGoal cancelled
90+6'
G. Obertan↳ R. Çağıran

Possession

52%Erzurumspor

Shots

15Erzurumspor

Pass accuracy

51%Erzurumspor

Statistics

ErzurumsporYeni
Overview
52%Possession48%
15Total Shots8
2Corners6
16Fouls12
Shots
15Total Shots8
4On Target2
8Off Target5
3Blocked1
8Inside Box5
7Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
403Total Passes374
343Accurate Passes306
85%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

League #203: Erzurumspor FK 1–0 Yeni Malatyaspor

Erzurumspor FK beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 in League #203 on April 21, 2021.

Goals: G. Obertan (90+6').

Erzurumspor FK controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.