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Erzurumspor FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
CANC
13:00
Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyaspor
3/19/20231. Lig1. Lig · Round 27Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Erzurumspor FK72%
×Draw17%
Yeni Malatyaspor11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
2.40
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.82

Erzurumspor FK creates 193% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 33 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.64
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.70

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Yeni Malatyaspor
3.15

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
89%
Erzurumspor FK or Yeni Malatyaspor
83%
Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor
28%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
49%
Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
91%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
69%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
42%
Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
56%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
20%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
87%
Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.40

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.70 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
72%
level
17%
Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
11%

Erzurumspor FK at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erzurumspor FK vs Yeni Malatyaspor — Match Preview

Erzurumspor FK face Yeni Malatyaspor on March 19, 2023 in this 1. Lig fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Erzurumspor FK host Yeni Malatyaspor at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.