Yeclano 0–1 Real Betis II: Result & Stats

Yeclano

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Betis II

Visus 65'

4/14/2024

League #878 · Group 4 - 31Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Yeclano53%

×Draw30%

Real Betis II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YeclanoExpected goals in this matchReal Betis II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.58

Yeclano

1.25

Real Betis II

0.58

Yeclano creates 116% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.67

0.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Yeclano

1.50

Real Betis II

0.67

allows per match

Yeclano

0.50

Real Betis II

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

Real Betis II →

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw

83%

Yeclano or Real Betis II

70%

Draw or Real Betis II

47%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+

25%

Real Betis II wins by 2+

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals

71%

Yeclano 2+ goals

36%

Yeclano 3+ goals

13%

Real Betis II 1+ goals

44%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

12%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)

75%

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 1.50 + Real Betis II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Real Betis II attack 0.67 + Yeclano defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Yeclano scores more

53%

level

30%

Real Betis II scores more

17%

Yeclano at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

Berto Rosas← S. Faye

55'

Javi Pedrosa← Clemente Iniesta

65'

Visus

71'

Antonio Salinas← Juanje Rodríguez

71'

José Ayala← Sato

71'

Darío Germil← Yanis Senhadji

73'

Manu Morillo← Jesús Rodríguez

75'

Andrés Silvente← Sergio Sanchís

89'

Enrique Fernández← M. Mensah

89'

E. Zidane← Ginés Sorroche

Yeclano

Real

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Adrián Hernández

55'▲Javi Pedrosa←▼Clemente Iniesta

71'▲Antonio Salinas←▼Juanje Rodríguez

71'▲José Ayala←▼Sato

75'▲Andrés Silvente←▼Sergio Sanchís

Yeclano substitutes

PedrosaSalinasAyalaSilventeMartiPérezManuel

Manager: Arzu

50'▲Berto Rosas←▼S. Faye

71'▲Darío Germil←▼Yanis Senhadji

73'▲Manu Morillo←▼Jesús Rodríguez

89'▲Enrique Fernández←▼M. Mensah

89'▲E. Zidane←▼Ginés Sorroche

Real Betis II substitutes

RosasGermilMorilloFernándezZidaneGarcíaAlcázar