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Real Betis II vs Yeclano — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Betis II
Real Betis II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yeclano
Yeclano
10/26/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Betis II30%
×Draw28%
Yeclano42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis II
1.01
Yeclano
1.25

Yeclano creates 24% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Real Betis II
1.12
Yeclano
0.84

allows per match

Real Betis II
1.67
Yeclano
0.89

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par
Yeclano+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Yeclano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw
58%
Real Betis II or Yeclano
72%
Draw or Yeclano
70%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+
11%
Yeclano wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals
64%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
27%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
8%
Yeclano 1+ goals
71%
Yeclano 2+ goals
36%
Yeclano 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)
42%
Yeclano (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Yeclano away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.12 + Yeclano defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Yeclano attack 0.84 + Real Betis II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Real Betis II scores more
30%
level
28%
Yeclano scores more
42%

Yeclano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Betis II vs Yeclano

Real Betis II beat Yeclano 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.