Yeclano 3–1 Real Betis II: Result & Stats

Yeclano

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Betis II

3/26/2023

League #878 · Group 4 - 27Estadio Municipal La Constitución

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Yeclano51%

×Draw32%

Real Betis II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YeclanoExpected goals in this matchReal Betis II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.50

Yeclano

1.13

Real Betis II

0.50

Yeclano creates 126% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

0.50

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Yeclano

1.50

Real Betis II

0.50

allows per match

Yeclano

0.50

Real Betis II

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeclano+0.00on par

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeclano ↓

Real Betis II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–110%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–022%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Yeclano or draw

84%

Yeclano or Real Betis II

68%

Draw or Real Betis II

49%

Winning margin

Yeclano wins by 2+

22%

Real Betis II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Yeclano 1+ goals

68%

Yeclano 2+ goals

31%

Yeclano 3+ goals

11%

Real Betis II 1+ goals

39%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

9%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Yeclano (draw refunded)

76%

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeclano at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 0.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeclano attack 1.50 + Real Betis II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Real Betis II attack 0.50 + Yeclano defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Yeclano scores more

51%

level

32%

Real Betis II scores more

16%

Yeclano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Yeclano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff