Yassy Turkistan 2–0 Taraz: Result & Stats

Yassy Turkistan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Taraz

B. Ermekbaev 90+3'

N. Mutali 45'

4/19/2024

1. Division · Round 3Stadion Oktiyabr' Zharylkapov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Yassy Turkistan39%

×Draw24%

Taraz37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yassy TurkistanExpected goals in this matchTaraz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.53

Yassy Turkistan

1.56

Taraz

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 48 away

1.28

creates per match

1.13

1.94

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan

1.28

Taraz

1.13

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan

1.94

Taraz

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par

Taraz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

Taraz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw

63%

Yassy Turkistan or Taraz

76%

Draw or Taraz

61%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+

19%

Taraz wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals

79%

Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals

46%

Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals

21%

Taraz 1+ goals

78%

Taraz 2+ goals

45%

Taraz 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)

51%

Taraz (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.94 · 54 matches

Taraz away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.85 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.28 + Taraz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

Taraz attack 1.13 + Yassy Turkistan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more

39%

level

24%

Taraz scores more

37%

Yassy Turkistan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yassy Turkistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Serikuly

42'

A. Nurzhanuly

45'

N. Mutali

60'

B. Rakhmet← B. Rakhmet

60'

N. Orynbasar← N. Orynbasar

62'

B. Abdualiev

64'

A. Erden

65'

D. Orynbasar

69'

D. Lesbek← D. Lesbek

73'

B. Omirbek← B. Omirbek

73'

B. Ermekbaev← B. Ermekbaev

82'

E. Toybekov← A. Mukanbetzhanov

82'

S. Kemelbek← S. Kemelbek

90'

B. Bazarbay← B. Bazarbay

90+3'

B. Ermekbaev

90+5'

A. Nurzhanuly← M. Ersinali

90+5'

Z. Basymbek← Z. Basymbek

90+6'

A. Erkinbek

90+6'

K. Sabirzhanov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff