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Yassy Turkistan vs Taraz — Cup 2019

Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Taraz
Taraz
D. Serikuly 90+5', 36'
B. Rakhmet 79'
3/18/2024CupCup · Qualifying Round - 3BIIK Futbol'noye Pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Yassy Turkistan22%
×Draw21%
Taraz58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yassy Turkistan
1.25
Taraz
2.15

Taraz creates 72% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan
0.60
Taraz
1.90

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan
2.40
Taraz
1.90

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par
Taraz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

Taraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw
42%
Yassy Turkistan or Taraz
79%
Draw or Taraz
78%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
9%
Taraz wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
71%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
36%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
13%
Taraz 1+ goals
88%
Taraz 2+ goals
63%
Taraz 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
27%
Taraz (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Taraz away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 0.60 + Taraz defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.25

Taraz attack 1.90 + Yassy Turkistan defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more
22%
level
21%
Taraz scores more
58%

Taraz at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Taraz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
B. Bazarbay← B. Bazarbay
33'
A. Nurzhanuly← A. Nurzhanuly
36'
D. Serikuly
46'
Z. Basymbek← Z. Basymbek
54'
E. Zhasanov
60'
M. Zhumat← M. Zhumat
60'
U. Khaitmuratov← U. Khaitmuratov
72'
B. Abdualiev
72'
E. Toibekov← B. Rakhmet
78'
D. Seitov← D. Seitov
79'
B. Rakhmet
81'
S. Bektai← S. Bektai
81'
E. Zhaksylyk← E. Zhaksylyk
87'
E. Zhaksylyk
90+5'
D. Serikuly

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Yassy Turkistan 0–3 Taraz

Taraz beat Yassy Turkistan 3-0 in Cup on March 18, 2024.

Goals: D. Serikuly (36', 90+5'), B. Rakhmet (79').

The match was played at BIIK Futbol'noye Pole in Shymkent.