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Yassy Turkistan vs SD Family — Cup 2019

Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
SD Family
SD Family
S. Tazhikenov 90'
A. Berezutskiy 74'
S. Sharipkhan 59', 25'
B. Abdullaev 32'
3/16/2025CupCup · 1st Preliminary RoundStadion im. Е. Pahlevanidi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Yassy Turkistan21%
×Draw21%
SD Family58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yassy Turkistan
1.22
SD Family
2.12

SD Family creates 74% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan
0.60
SD Family
1.83

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan
2.40
SD Family
1.83

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par
SD Family+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

SD Family →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw
42%
Yassy Turkistan or SD Family
79%
Draw or SD Family
79%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
8%
SD Family wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
70%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
34%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
12%
SD Family 1+ goals
88%
SD Family 2+ goals
62%
SD Family 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
27%
SD Family (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

SD Family away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 0.60 + SD Family defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.22

SD Family attack 1.83 + Yassy Turkistan defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more
21%
level
21%
SD Family scores more
58%

SD Family at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "SD Family will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
S. Sharipkhan
32'
B. Abdullaev
59'
S. Sharipkhan
74'
A. Berezutskiy
90'
S. Tazhikenov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Yassy Turkistan 0–5 SD Family

SD Family beat Yassy Turkistan 5-0 in Cup on March 16, 2025.

Goals: S. Sharipkhan (25', 59'), B. Abdullaev (32'), A. Berezutskiy (74'), S. Tazhikenov (90').

The match was played at Stadion im. Е. Pahlevanidi in Almaty.