Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yassy Turkistan vs SD Family — 1. Division 2019

Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SD Family
SD Family
S. Primberdiev 45'
B. Akhaev 29'
9/20/20241. Division1. Division · Round 25Stadion Oktiyabr' Zharylkapov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Yassy Turkistan46%
×Draw22%
SD Family32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yassy Turkistan
2.01
SD Family
1.66

Yassy Turkistan creates 21% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 27 away

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.28
SD Family
1.37

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.94
SD Family
2.74

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par
SD Family+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

SD Family →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw
68%
Yassy Turkistan or SD Family
78%
Draw or SD Family
54%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
26%
SD Family wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
87%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
59%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
32%
SD Family 1+ goals
81%
SD Family 2+ goals
49%
SD Family 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
59%
SD Family (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.94 · 54 matches

SD Family away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.28 + SD Family defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.01

SD Family attack 1.37 + Yassy Turkistan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more
46%
level
22%
SD Family scores more
32%

Yassy Turkistan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yassy Turkistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
B. Akhaev
30'
B. Akhaev
42'
A. Litosh
45'
S. Primberdiev
48'
S. Maulen← S. Maulen
58'
Z. Kaldybay← Z. Kaldybay
58'
S. Abzhal← N. Mutali
61'
I. Dadaev← I. Dadaev
66'
S. Batyrkhanov← A. Amanbay
76'
S. Beyseev
82'
B. Madelkhan← T. Kuantaev
84'
N. Serikov
90'
Z. Erzhigit
90'
D. Dyusembekov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yassy Turkistan vs SD Family

Yassy Turkistan and SD Family drew 1-1 in 1. Division on September 20, 2024.

Goals: B. Akhaev (29'), S. Primberdiev (45').

The match was played at Stadion Oktiyabr' Zharylkapov in Turkistan.