SD Family 5–0 Yassy Turkistan: Result & Stats

SD Family

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Yassy Turkistan

V. Grabko 89'

D. Andyrmash 64'

S. Shymyrkhan 36'

B. Akhaev 34', 8'

6/13/2024

1. Division · Round 11Sydykbek Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

SD Family48%

×Draw20%

Yassy Turkistan32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SD FamilyExpected goals in this matchYassy Turkistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

1.88

SD Family

2.34

Yassy Turkistan

1.88

SD Family creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 52 away

1.81

creates per match

1.35

2.41

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

SD Family

1.81

Yassy Turkistan

1.35

allows per match

SD Family

2.41

Yassy Turkistan

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SD Family+0.00on par

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Family ↓

Yassy Turkistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

SD Family or draw

68%

SD Family or Yassy Turkistan

80%

Draw or Yassy Turkistan

52%

Winning margin

SD Family wins by 2+

29%

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SD Family 1+ goals

90%

SD Family 2+ goals

67%

SD Family 3+ goals

41%

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals

85%

Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals

56%

Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

SD Family (draw refunded)

60%

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Family at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.41 · 27 matches

Yassy Turkistan away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Family attack 1.81 + Yassy Turkistan defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.34

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.35 + SD Family defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SD Family scores more

48%

level

20%

Yassy Turkistan scores more

32%

SD Family at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "SD Family will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

B. Akhaev

29'

B. Daniyarov

30'

S. Sagnaev

34'

B. Akhaev

36'

S. Shymyrkhan

37'

D. Nurzhumaev

40'

B. Omirbek

46'

S. Maulen

46'

B. Ermekbaev← B. Ermekbaev

46'

S. Seksembaev← S. Seksembaev

55'

S. Batyrkhanov← E. Zhaksylyk

57'

D. Andyrmash← D. Andyrmash

57'

B. Madelkhan← B. Madelkhan

57'

I. Batyr← I. Batyr

62'

B. Abdualiev

64'

D. Andyrmash

68'

A. Kumarov← A. Kumarov

71'

V. Grabko← V. Grabko

78'

B. Bazarbay← B. Bazarbay

83'

B. Madelkhan

89'

V. Grabko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff