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Yassy Turkistan vs Kaisar — 1. Division 2019

Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kaisar
Kaisar
4/24/20221. Division1. Division · Round 2Turkistan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Yassy Turkistan21%
×Draw21%
Kaisar57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yassy Turkistan
1.14
Kaisar
2.01

Kaisar creates 76% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 13 away

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.28
Kaisar
2.08

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.94
Kaisar
1.00

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par
Kaisar+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

Kaisar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw
43%
Yassy Turkistan or Kaisar
79%
Draw or Kaisar
79%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
8%
Kaisar wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
68%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
32%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
11%
Kaisar 1+ goals
87%
Kaisar 2+ goals
59%
Kaisar 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
27%
Kaisar (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.94 · 54 matches

Kaisar away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.28 + Kaisar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Kaisar attack 2.08 + Yassy Turkistan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more
21%
level
21%
Kaisar scores more
57%

Kaisar at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kaisar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Yassy Turkistan 1–2 Kaisar

Kaisar beat Yassy Turkistan 2-1 in 1. Division on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Turkistan Arena in Turkistan.