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Kaisar vs Yassy Turkistan — 1. Division 2019

Kaisar
Kaisar
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
8/24/20221. Division1. Division · Round 14Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kaisar69%
×Draw16%
Yassy Turkistan15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaisar
2.71
Yassy Turkistan
1.18

Kaisar creates 130% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kaisar
2.54
Yassy Turkistan
1.35

allows per match

Kaisar
1.00
Yassy Turkistan
2.87

finishing

Kaisar+0.00on par
Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaisar ↓

Yassy Turkistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Kaisar or draw
85%
Kaisar or Yassy Turkistan
84%
Draw or Yassy Turkistan
31%

Winning margin

Kaisar wins by 2+
48%
Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kaisar 1+ goals
93%
Kaisar 2+ goals
75%
Kaisar 3+ goals
50%
Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
69%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
33%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kaisar (draw refunded)
83%
Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaisar at home — creates 2.54, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Yassy Turkistan away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaisar attack 2.54 + Yassy Turkistan defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.71

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.35 + Kaisar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Kaisar scores more
69%
level
16%
Yassy Turkistan scores more
15%

Kaisar at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Kaisar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Kaisar 4–2 Yassy Turkistan

Kaisar beat Yassy Turkistan 4-2 in 1. Division on August 24, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva in Kyzylorda.