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Kaisar vs Yassy Turkistan — Cup 2019

Kaisar
Kaisar
FT
3 – 0
Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
5/4/2022CupCup · 3rd Preliminary RoundStadion im. Gany Muratbaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kaisar53%
×Draw25%
Yassy Turkistan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaisar
1.61
Yassy Turkistan
0.93

Kaisar creates 73% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kaisar
1.43
Yassy Turkistan
1.00

allows per match

Kaisar
0.86
Yassy Turkistan
1.80

finishing

Kaisar+0.00on par
Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaisar ↓

Yassy Turkistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kaisar or draw
78%
Kaisar or Yassy Turkistan
75%
Draw or Yassy Turkistan
47%

Winning margin

Kaisar wins by 2+
28%
Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kaisar 1+ goals
80%
Kaisar 2+ goals
48%
Kaisar 3+ goals
22%
Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
61%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
24%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kaisar (draw refunded)
71%
Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaisar at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Yassy Turkistan away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaisar attack 1.43 + Yassy Turkistan defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.61

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.00 + Kaisar defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kaisar scores more
53%
level
25%
Yassy Turkistan scores more
22%

Kaisar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kaisar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Kaisar 3–0 Yassy Turkistan

Kaisar beat Yassy Turkistan 3-0 in Cup on May 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva in Kyzylorda.