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Yassy Turkistan vs Jas Qyran — 1. Division 2019

Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
B. Ryskul 41' (pen)
S. Ochilov 30'
N. Agzambayev 67'
K. Ilyasov 15'
10/31/20231. Division1. Division · Round 30Stadion Oktiyabr' Zharylkapov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Yassy Turkistan44%
×Draw22%
Jas Qyran33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yassy Turkistan
1.85
Jas Qyran
1.57

Yassy Turkistan creates 18% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 14 away

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.28
Jas Qyran
1.21

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan
1.94
Jas Qyran
2.43

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par
Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

Jas Qyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw
67%
Yassy Turkistan or Jas Qyran
78%
Draw or Jas Qyran
56%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
24%
Jas Qyran wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
84%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
55%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
28%
Jas Qyran 1+ goals
79%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
46%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
57%
Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.94 · 54 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.28 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.85

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Yassy Turkistan defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more
44%
level
22%
Jas Qyran scores more
33%

Yassy Turkistan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yassy Turkistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
K. Ilyasov
30'
S. Ochilov
41'
B. RyskulPenalty
67'
N. Agzambayev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yassy Turkistan vs Jas Qyran

Yassy Turkistan and Jas Qyran drew 2-2 in 1. Division on October 31, 2023.

Goals: K. Ilyasov (15'), S. Ochilov (30'), B. Ryskul (41' pen), N. Agzambayev (67').

The match was played at Stadion Oktiyabr' Zharylkapov in Turkistan.