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Yassy Turkistan vs Jas Qyran — Cup 2019

Yassy Turkistan
Yassy Turkistan
FT
2 – 0
Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
4/12/2022CupCup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Yassy Turkistan25%
×Draw21%
Jas Qyran55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yassy Turkistan
1.43
Jas Qyran
2.20

Jas Qyran creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Yassy Turkistan
0.60
Jas Qyran
2.00

allows per match

Yassy Turkistan
2.40
Jas Qyran
2.25

finishing

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par
Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yassy Turkistan ↓

Jas Qyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Yassy Turkistan or draw
45%
Yassy Turkistan or Jas Qyran
79%
Draw or Jas Qyran
75%

Winning margin

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+
11%
Jas Qyran wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals
76%
Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals
42%
Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals
17%
Jas Qyran 1+ goals
89%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
64%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)
31%
Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yassy Turkistan at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yassy Turkistan attack 0.60 + Jas Qyran defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Jas Qyran attack 2.00 + Yassy Turkistan defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Yassy Turkistan scores more
25%
level
21%
Jas Qyran scores more
55%

Jas Qyran at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Jas Qyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yassy Turkistan vs Jas Qyran

Yassy Turkistan beat Jas Qyran 2-0 in Cup on April 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Arys.