Jas Qyran 2–3 Yassy Turkistan: Result & Stats

Jas Qyran

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Yassy Turkistan

K. Ilyasov 90+5'

M. Kotov 68'

D. Nurzhumaev 74'

B. Ryskul 71'

K. Ilyasov 44' (OG)

4/7/2023

1. Division · Round 1Stadion Jas Qyran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Jas Qyran65%

×Draw18%

Yassy Turkistan18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jas QyranExpected goals in this matchYassy Turkistan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.32

Jas Qyran

2.62

Yassy Turkistan

1.32

Jas Qyran creates 98% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 52 away

2.36

creates per match

1.35

1.29

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Jas Qyran

2.36

Yassy Turkistan

1.35

allows per match

Jas Qyran

1.29

Yassy Turkistan

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Yassy Turkistan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jas Qyran ↓

Yassy Turkistan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Jas Qyran or draw

82%

Jas Qyran or Yassy Turkistan

82%

Draw or Yassy Turkistan

35%

Winning margin

Jas Qyran wins by 2+

44%

Yassy Turkistan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Jas Qyran 1+ goals

93%

Jas Qyran 2+ goals

73%

Jas Qyran 3+ goals

48%

Yassy Turkistan 1+ goals

73%

Yassy Turkistan 2+ goals

38%

Yassy Turkistan 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)

78%

Yassy Turkistan (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jas Qyran at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Yassy Turkistan away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.87 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jas Qyran attack 2.36 + Yassy Turkistan defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.62

Yassy Turkistan attack 1.35 + Jas Qyran defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Jas Qyran scores more

65%

level

18%

Yassy Turkistan scores more

18%

Jas Qyran at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Jas Qyran will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

K. IlyasovOwn goal

68'

M. Kotov

71'

B. Ryskul

74'

D. Nurzhumaev

90+5'

K. Ilyasov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff