Yantra 2019 0–1 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Yantra 2019

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Dunav Ruse

P. Bachev 19'

11/15/2025

Second League · Round 16Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Yantra 201939%

×Draw28%

Dunav Ruse33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yantra 2019Expected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.10

Yantra 2019

1.23

Dunav Ruse

1.10

Yantra 2019 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 69 away

1.32

creates per match

1.19

1.01

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Yantra 2019

1.32

Dunav Ruse

1.19

allows per match

Yantra 2019

1.01

Dunav Ruse

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra 2019 ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Yantra 2019 or draw

67%

Yantra 2019 or Dunav Ruse

72%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

61%

Winning margin

Yantra 2019 wins by 2+

17%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Yantra 2019 1+ goals

71%

Yantra 2019 2+ goals

35%

Yantra 2019 3+ goals

13%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

67%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

30%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)

54%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra 2019 at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra 2019 attack 1.32 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Dunav Ruse attack 1.19 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yantra 2019 scores more

39%

level

28%

Dunav Ruse scores more

33%

Yantra 2019 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yantra 2019 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

P. Bachev

29'

V. Boev

58'

I. Keita← P. Bachev

61'

V. Vasilev← T. Dimitrov

70'

I. Keita

77'

G. Dimitrov← G. Babaliev

79'

K. Gospodinov← K. Boychev

85'

D. Minchev

86'

Aquila← R. Apostolov

86'

H. Kelyovluev← D. Minchev

Yantra

Dunav

33

81

26

88

22

14

▼

Apostolov

78

Sou

10

▼

Boychev

8

Salah

11

▼

Minchev

9

⚽

▼

Bachev

1

Vasilev

24

▼

5

16

22

6

15

8

7

▼

Babaliev

17

Ganchev

9

Angelov

61'▲V. Vasilev←▼T. Dimitrov

77'▲G. Dimitrov←▼G. Babaliev

Yantra 2019 substitutes

12Kotev4Ivanov89Angelov3Kanalyan10Vasilev99Vasilev19Dimitrov

Manager: Georgi Chilikov

58'▲I. Keita←▼P. Bachev

79'▲K. Gospodinov←▼K. Boychev

86'▲Aquila←▼R. Apostolov

86'▲H. Kelyovluev←▼D. Minchev

Dunav Ruse substitutes

1Kanev13Aquila77Simeonov19Stefanov70Statev7Kelyovluev15Gospodinov99Marinov18Keita