Dunav Ruse vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 69+ matches
Dunav Ruse49%
Yantra 201923%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Dunav Ruse creates 64% more chances
Season form · 69 home / 100 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Dunav Ruse ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 69 matches
Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Dunav Ruse attack 1.45 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.33
Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Dunav Ruse at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Dunav RuseYantra 2019
Fratria
Vihren
CSKA Sofia II
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Etar Veliko Tarnovo
Ludogorets II
Marek
Hebar 1918
Pirin Blagoevgrad
Spartak Pleven
Sportist Svoge
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa
Sevlievo
FK Minyor Pernik
BelasitsaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Dunav Ruse host Yantra 2019 on Saturday, 1 March 2025 at 13:30. The match is part of the Second League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Dunav Ruse vs Yantra 2019
Dunav Ruse and Yantra 2019 drew 0-0 in Second League on March 1, 2025.
The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.